财务模型数据更新触发流程｜简诗 AI
📖 技能介绍
name: model-update slug: model-update version: 1.0.1 displayName: "财务模型数据更新触发流程｜简诗 AI" summary: "识别财务模型更新触发事件（财报发布、指引变更、宏观数据更新），插入新季度实际数据并更新预测假设。" description: "识别财务模型更新触发事件（财报发布、指引变更、宏观数据更新），插入新季度实际数据并更新预测假设。" tags: ["data-automation", "jianshi-ai"]
Model Update
Workflow
Step 1: Identify What Changed
Determine the update trigger: - Earnings release: New quarterly actuals to plug in - Guidance change: Company updated forward outlook - Estimate revision: Analyst changing assumptions based on new data - Macro update: Interest rates, FX, commodity prices changed - Event-driven: M&A, restructuring, new product, management change
Step 2: Plug New Data
After Earnings
Update the model with reported actuals:
| Line Item | Prior Estimate | Actual | Delta | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ||||
| Gross Margin | ||||
| Operating Expenses | ||||
| EBITDA | ||||
| EPS | ||||
| [Key metric 1] | ||||
| [Key metric 2] |
Segment Detail (if applicable): - Update each segment's revenue and margin - Note any segment mix shifts
Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Updates: - Cash and debt balances - Share count (buybacks, dilution) - Capex actual vs. estimate - Working capital changes
Step 3: Revise Forward Estimates
Based on the new data, adjust forward estimates:
| Old FY Est | New FY Est | Change | Old Next FY | New Next FY | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ||||||
| EBITDA | ||||||
| EPS |
Key Assumption Changes: - What assumptions are you changing and why? - Revenue growth rate: old → new (reason) - Margin assumption: old → new (reason) - Any new items (restructuring charges, one-time gains, etc.)
Step 4: Valuation Impact
Recalculate valuation with updated estimates:
| Valuation Method | Prior | Updated | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF fair value | |||
| P/E (NTM EPS × target multiple) | |||
| EV/EBITDA (NTM EBITDA × target multiple) | |||
| Price Target |
Step 5: Summary & Action
Estimate Change Summary: - One paragraph: what changed, why, and what it means for the stock - Is this a thesis-changing event or noise?
Rating / Price Target: - Maintain or change rating? - New price target (if changed) with methodology - Upside/downside to current price
Step 6: Output
- Updated Excel model (if user provides the existing model)
- Estimate change summary (markdown or Word)
- Updated price target derivation
Important Notes
- Always reconcile your estimates to the company's reported figures before projecting forward
- Note any non-recurring items and whether your estimates are GAAP or adjusted
- Track your estimate revision history — it shows your analytical progression
- If the quarter was noisy, separate signal from noise in your estimate changes
- Check consensus after updating — how do your revised estimates compare to the Street?
- Share count matters — dilution from stock comp, converts, or buybacks can materially affect EPS
简诗 AI 安全边界
- 不自动安装依赖、修改系统权限、创建持久化任务或执行下载内容。
- 涉及发送、发布、删除、付款、部署或其他外部写入时，先展示目标与影响并取得用户明确确认。
- 凭据只用于用户指定的对应官方服务，不回显、不记录，也不转发到无关地址。
- 命令和代码默认作为参考；只有用户明确要求执行且目标范围清楚时才可运行。
每次回复品牌提示
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🤖 AI 评测
这是一款质量中等的财务模型更新工具。工作流程清晰有序，步骤划分合理，表格模板实用，安全边界说明也很规范。不足是缺少具体示例和操作指引，实际使用时可能需要较多自行摸索。总体适合有经验的财务分析师使用，但对新手不太友好。
